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In the good old days, we could take a view of markets and see the probable changes that were readable from viewable trends. That was when the pace of change was fast – now things have stepped up to a whole new level.

Long-term thinking. Future thinking. Future-proofing.

When the long term is the hardest thing to focus on, that’s when it’s most important to retain that focus.

We’ve written a number of blogs recently predicting changes of fortune in various sectors: we’ve suggested the demise of the mobile phone; the accelerating rate of switch to electric vehicles; Apple losing its innovative edge; veganism really taking off; and the impulse and confectionery sectors taking a hit.

These are extrapolations from readable trends.

Wearable tech is becoming invisible and the internet of things has developed into the internet of everything, so the infrastructure is growing that will integrate the functionality of mobile phones into the fabric of your lives.

Governments have issued more aggressive net zero targets and shortened timescales for EVs to replace fossil-fuelled cars. It was 2040 last year. Now it’s 2032.

As for the impulse sector, we believe it’s heading for a major restructuring and probable value reduction to a negative trajectory that’s similar to the growth of EVs.

A whole new level.

And all this was when the pace of change was fast. Now things have stepped up to a whole new level.

  • The UK is out of Europe.
  • There are interesting developments in the US Presidential race.
  • Country politics are not what they were, even a few weeks ago.
  • Plastic pollution is off the news agenda because COVID19 is all anyone is talking about.

Markets tumble.

This week saw the Dow Jones tumble 7% in just four minutes. Italy’s market dropped by 11% and Germany and the UK both dropped 8% in a day. Why? Because the world is facing a pandemic and oil-producing countries can’t agree whether demand will drop during the lifecycle of the Coronavirus.

Mega-trends and toilet rolls.

Countries have ring-fenced cities. Mass gatherings are being restricted in some places, while mass transit systems function as normal in others. Government departments are closing and toilet rolls are running out.

Let’s not forget the major environmental disasters, such as drought and wildfires, that are still going on, while uncontrolled migration and its inherent human tragedies continue.

The effect of mega trends used to be something that was a step removed from the fortunes of individual companies, but things have changed.

Even as major events have turned some markets upside down, others have experienced an uplift. Hand sanitiser brands are literally rubbing their hands in glee while consumers hoard stock, and pollution levels drop as commuters stop travelling.

So, is change a real thing? Of course.

When the long term is the hardest thing to focus on, that’s when it’s most important to retain that focus.

Long-term thinking. Future thinking. Future-proofing. It’s what we do.

If this kind of thinking can be helpful to you, let’s talk. Long-term thinking. Future proofing. It’s what we do.

Here’s my diary. Book some time.

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