In 2023 we’ve seen seismic shifts in attitude responding to the many mega and macro events around the world.
It’s possible we’ll look back and wonder what all the fuss was about when our worlds have tilted a bit more in 2024.
The adage, if not now, when, used to be a great way of persuading innovation workshops to be bold and creative. The truth is that, whatever walk of life you look at, if not now, when is actually, if not now, soon.
In fact, it’s might be more accurate to say that change will hit you, if not now, it’s already in the wind.
The next decade is so primed to change everything we know about real and virtual relationships, political norms, financial stability, democracy across medical science and so many other fundamental structures that underpin societies, that factors are, actually, too many to count – or even point at.
Just one thing
Looking at these issues from the UK informs a perspective that we, as future-gazers, try to avoid.
Yet, one of the factors that we’ll take into 2024 is that two thirds (+66%) of countries currently recognised as democratic will go to the polls in the same year (UK, EU, US and more).
This is the first time it has happened since anyone started counting in the 1960s. It could be quite a moment.
Left or right?
Forecasts suggest that the UK will swing to a left leaning government.
Other places (US and big chunks of the EU) are heading further to the right than they already are.
Populist leaders have had a good run and some may survive the opportunity to change. Some won’t.
Protectionism is on the rise in the US and UK, amongst others, and history tells us that this rarely ends well but may prevail for a while. It’s hard to unravel a shit show when you first come into power.
Looking out slightly further we see more change-inducing trends to impact us.
Nigeria has a population today around 219 million of which 50% is under 19 years old. 70% is under 30.
The Nigerian population growth curve is set for it to reach 377 million by 2025 and 733 million by 2100.
Think about that; a new +400 million workers under 30 from one country.
If China and India are your sources for products now, start looking for this to affect you.
Nigeria’s population will equal the US as joint third most populous country sometime soon. Those people need food and work. It is possible to think that China and India may find their GDP hard to maintain with this kind of disruption in the world manufacturing order.
What does it matter?
All manner of manufactured goods could be differently sourced with new supply opportunities.
All kinds of manufacturing could be differently located with a different attitude to access to labour.
Some enlightened nations are actively developing inward migration opportunities.
If ‘growth’ is still the driving target behind our, broadly, capitalistic objectives, more people equals more output and it’s possible to see this translating into more success for Nigeria than the UK, for example.
How do you read it?